According to the International Production and Demand Forecast released by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) in July, global cotton imports in 2012/13 will drop significantly.

According to ICAC, global cotton imports in 2011/12 are forecast at 9.2 million tons, up 20% year-on-year, the largest increase in six years, mainly driven by China's imports soaring to 5.1 million tons. In contrast, imports from other parts of the world fell by 18% to 4.1 million tons. This year, China’s imports accounted for more than half of global imports for the first time, reaching 55%, much higher than the average of 29% in the past five years.

Although the large increase in cotton imports has benefited many exporting countries and cotton farmers, this does not mean that cotton demand has increased. In fact, global cotton consumption in 2011/12 is expected to be 22.7 million tons, down 7% year-on-year, the lowest level in nearly eight years. High and volatile cotton prices coupled with slowing global economic growth have led to a weakening of cotton yarn demand. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative score of the Courtrum A Index has fallen by 30%. However, it may be necessary to further reduce the cotton demand for real recovery of cotton prices. Although the decline in chemical fiber prices is significantly lower than that of cotton, it is still generally more competitive than cotton. Due to multiple adverse effects of domestic cotton prices higher than those of other countries, weakened demand for textile exports, insufficient labor and high costs, and persistently strong exchange rate, China’s cotton consumption is expected to be 8.6 million tons this year, a decrease of 10% from the same period of last year. The global share of cotton consumption is 38%, lower than 41% a few years ago.

This year, the gap between China's cotton production and demand is only 1.2 million tons, but the import volume is expected to reach 5.1 million tons. First, the Chinese government has collected and stored 3.1 million tons of domestic cotton, which has greatly reduced the amount of cotton supplied to domestic textile mills, thereby contributing to textile mills. Increase the import of cotton; Second, the Chinese government has also collected and stored a large number of imported cotton; Third, a large number of imported cotton piled up in the port waiting for the government to increase quotas for customs clearance.

In 2012/13, the global cotton consumption is expected to increase slightly by 3% to 23.5 million tons, which is based on the fact that the low cotton price and enhanced global economic growth will promote the consumption of cotton textiles. The increase in cotton consumption will stimulate the use of cotton to increase imports, but it will not offset the decline in China's imports. At present, China’s reserve cotton stocks are huge. The cotton imports in the new year are expected to be reduced by about half to 2.7 million tons. The import volume in other parts of the world is 4.9 million tons, an increase of 18%, and the total cotton import is expected to be 7.6 million tons. , a year-on-year decrease of 18%.

In 2012/13, driven by the increase in output, cotton exports from the United States and West Africa are expected to increase to 2.6 million tons and 625,000 tons, respectively, with increases of 2% and 10% respectively. However, the export volume of other major cotton exporters will decrease because of the decline in export market share. In 2012/13, global cotton production is forecast at 24.9 million tons, down 8% year-on-year.

In the current year, global cotton ending stocks are expected to increase by 48% to 13.8 million tons, and will continue to grow by 10% to 15.1 million tons in the next year, and the stock consumption ratio will reach 64%, which is the highest level since the mid-1980s. The continued increase in global cotton stocks will bring pressure on international cotton prices until 2012/13.


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